November 2023 - Commentary
The U.S. economy is on the verge of achieving what many economists deemed unlikely or impossible: a return to pre-pandemic levels of inflation without triggering a recession or significant economic downturn—a phenomenon known as a "soft landing."
Go Deeper (5 min read)Real Estate Is In Trouble
Mezzanine loans, known for their high interest rates and expedited foreclosure processes compared to traditional mortgages, have seen a notable surge in foreclosure notices.
Go Deeper (3 min read)The State Of Venture Capital
The landscape of venture capital (VC) has undergone significant changes in the past year. According to Kroll, the US currently has $300 billion of uninvested capital in VC funds.
Go Deeper (2 min read)How Higher Rates Could Be Good, Not Bad
Federal Reserve policymakers seem hesitant to increase interest rates again, and they don't anticipate lowering rates in the near future. When they do eventually consider rate cuts, they expect them to be relatively modest.
Go Deeper (3 min read)Salaries Are Freezing
The most esteemed consulting firms in the world have decided to freeze their starting salaries for new graduates in the United States, as the fierce competition for jobs replaces the earlier trend of salary increases following the pandemic.
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October 2023 - Commentary
Economists have become more optimistic about the U.S. economy. They now believe that the country will avoid a recession, as the Federal Reserve has finished raising interest rates and inflation is expected to continue decreasing.
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Softbank Is Getting Out Of China
SoftBank is taking steps to reduce its remaining stake in Alibaba, limiting its exposure to the Chinese market and raising funds due to the declining value of its technology investments amidst the market downturn.
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China's Gradual Recovery
Official figures indicate that China's retail sales contracted by 0.2% in 2022, a stark contrast to the 8% growth recorded in 2019.
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Seniors Are Making The Economy Stronger
Consumer spending has remained remarkably resilient despite the Federal Reserve's efforts to raise interest rates. An often overlooked but significant factor contributing to this resilience is the aging population.
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Where Are Rates Going?
The threat of a bond selloff looms large, casting doubt on hopes for a soft economic landing. The surge in long-term interest rates, reaching levels not seen in 16 years, raises concerns, especially as the exact triggers behind this move remain unclear.
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Households Are Not Cooling Down
By now, consumers were expected to reduce their spending for several reasons. Interest rates have risen, inflation remains high, pandemic-related savings have dwindled, and the labor market is showing signs of cooling.
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